A Delay in First Contact?

As noted by Jeff Hopkins in the Epsilon Aurigae Campaign newsletter and a recent Astronomer's Telegram, the eps Aur eclipse seems to have started later than was predicted by data from previous eclipses.  What could be the cause of such a change?  How could you confirm your theory? 

The scientific process often begins with a thorough discussion of the problem and brainstorming solutions with colleagues.  In an effort to start such dialog on Citizen Sky, I've started a forum to discuss the apparent shortening of the eclipse.  I'm sure with several people discussing the topic, we will be able to solve this mystery.