Blogs / Dr.Bob's blog / As the light curve wiggles.
As the light curve wiggles.
As the light of the primary star continues to wane, discussions of the time of "first contact" have arisen - that's when the dark disk began to encroach on the F star photosphere. Pre-eclipse predictions indicated the date could be JD 2,455,055 = 2009 Aug.11 (Hopkins & Stencel, 2008 Epsilon Aurigae - book - p.97). Different observers point to slightly different times to represent the start of ingress.
Jeff Hopkins (Hopkins Phoenix Observatory) has analyzed light curve data and concluded the eclipse began (V band) on JD 2,455,072 = Aug 28.
See his webpage at http://www.hposoft.com/Plots09/FirstContact.JPG .
Italian observer, M.M.M.Santangelo (Osservatorio Astronomico di Capannori) has published statistical results of his independent photometry in issue 2224 of the Astronomer's Telegram and states that the eclipse "did not still take place until at least August 17th" = JD 2,455,060.
See webpage: http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=2224 .
As Jeff Hopkins points out, the pre-eclipse variations complicate pinpointing a precise time of ingress. As eclipse progresses and photometry is recorded, a bigger picture should help improve this estimation. Both assessments indicate a delay of 6 to 17 days in the start of eclipse, which suggest that previously noted trend of reductions in the length of eclipse may be holding true in the present eclipse (see p.89 of aforementioned book).
Ingress duration had been 135 days during last eclipse. This puts arrival of totality ("second contact") estimated to be at/around the following dates:
Aug.11 + 135 days = JD 2,455,190 = Dec.24
Aug.17 + 135 days = JD 2,455,196 = Dec.30
Aug.28 + 135 days = JD 2,455,207 = Jan.10
Compilations of reported photometry (see page 7, Newsletter 14 at
http://www.hposoft.com/EAur09/NL09/NL14.pdf ) suggest the star has been fading by 3 to 5 milli-mags per day. At this recent rate, we could project that magnitude 3.75 could be reached as early as JD 2,455,185 = Dec.19. Thus, good photometric and visual coverage throughout autumn will help confirm this. Keep up the good work reporting your results!
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I would go for an earlier date of 16th August +-3 days based on Richard Miles' V and Ic data which is consistent with a step change in the rate of increase of the KI 7699 absorption line around the same date.