Forums / The Science / Data Analysis / Contest: Predict first contact!
Contest: Predict first contact!
Hey, all. Let's have a mini-contest to predict first contact. Jeff has a nice blog post about the topic here. Remember to post your predicted start date and the bandpass. One of these days we'll get shirts made up for the project and we'll give one out to the winner (or those who are very close).
I'm going to go with a little later than normal and say August 7 in V band.
Aaron
Clearly to coincide with the opening reception of the Adler Planetarium meeting.
Or the 5th to coincide with Dr.Bob's discussion of epsilon Aurigae.
My bet is August 6th, during Lunar eclipse! ;)
That is actually an excellent idea. You should be able to see the star during totality and it would be a great chance to get a data point when most people are obstructed by the glare of the Sun. But then again, who would want to waste valuable rods and cones by looking at eps aur during the big moment? :) Maybe some intrepid amateur will take a very wide field image of the eclipse that just happens to have our star in it's frame!
I didn't mean Solar Eclipse. I meant Lunar Eclispe in august. BTW observation of variables during Solar Eclipse is bad idea. Only perhaps bright Supernova or Nova!
Oh yeah, sorry about that.I have many friends heading to China right now for the solar eclipse so that was on my mind!
well spectroscopically at least at 7699A in the Infra Red, it looks like first contact was back around the middle of May and the eclipse is now well under way. http://www.threehillsobservatory.co.uk/astro/spectra_40.htmRobin





I'm all for a contest, but understand we will not have a good estimate of first contact until late fall. I would be interested in hearing from others the best way to judge precisely when first contact happened. As mentioned before, epsilon Aurigae goes through out-of-eclipse variations of 0.22 magnitude (Vband,3.12 to 2.90) and has recently been very bright (brighter than V= 2.90) so it is due to start decreasing with or with out a first contact.